Figuring Out North Korea

A Tufts expert on Asian politics says North Korean ruler Kim Jong Il is a crafty dictator, and dealing with the Communist nation is a delicate matter.

Medford/Somerville, Mass. [03.10.05] Amid North Korea's admission in February that it possesses nuclear weapons, international observers have been casting a wary eye toward the Communist nation. That country's leader, Kim Jong Il, has proven enigmatic to many scholars, but one Tufts expert on international politics says that Kim should not be underestimated.

"We have this image of Kim Jong Il as a drunken, sex-obsessed playboy. All that he may be, but he's also a very shrewd leader," Sung-Yoon Lee, adjunct assistant professor of international politics at The Fletcher School, told the Boston Herald.

"He's far more interesting than Michael Jackson. He rules over a nuclear-armed nation of 22 million people,'' Lee told the Herald.

There is little incentive for Kim to forego his nuclear weapons, even if it would mean more aid for his country, Lee said.

"If Kim Jong Il gave everything up, why would anyone else listen to him? How do you hold a grip on your people?'' the Tufts professor asked.

The culture of fear and paranoia propagated in North Korea has helped cultivate a reverence around Kim, who is called "Dear Leader" and claims to have been born on a sacred mountain, the Herald reported.

"It's the most perfected totalitarian control over a nation ever," Lee told the newspaper.

After months of stalling, North Korea recently expressed willingness to re-enter the six-nation talks with China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the United States to discuss ending its nuclear ambitions. According to Lee, it's all part of the Communist state's gamesmanship.

"The North Koreans don't want to be cornered in the next round of talks," he said. "It's a tantrum. It's been successful over the last 30 years and they've gained a lot."

Still, with North Korea admitting its possession of nuclear arms, sanctions are being discussed as a more viable option against the country. But sentiments are mixed.

"All parties, in one way or another, are wary to impose sanctions on North Korea," Lee told Asia Times Online. "It would ... raise the pressure on the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the official name for the North] by another notch, and also create expectations for immediate changes in North Korea's behavior."

If North Korea tests its nuclear armaments, Lee said to Asia Times Online, "sufficient international pressure would have built up for China and Russia to abstain from casting a veto [against sanctions] in the United Nations Security Council. This would further legitimize and internationalize the U.S. position." Still, Lee added, if sanctions failed, the U.S. would "run out of policy options."

Given its policy goals in the region, the South has been hesitant to enact sanctions.

"The South also might fear the possibility of North Korean military provocation," Lee explained to Asia Times Online. "Japan today is the only country the U.S. can trust to take action in squeezing North Korea."

Sanctions, however, could have a strong effect on the North Korean leadership.

"Sanctions, even if they were to disrupt 10 percent of North Korea's trade, would certainly bear ill effect on the flow of amenities into the hands of the leadership – food, drinks, clothing, TV sets, cars, etc. Facing disgruntled generals and middle-class officers is not in Kim Jong-Il's best interest," Lee told Asia Times Online.

"Although no one can say with certainty that sanctions would create conditions for the collapse of the Kim regime," Lee added, "they just might push the Dear Leader one step closer to that which he most fears."